Abstract
Objective: To analyze the Temperature and Precipitation dependence in Hyderabad and Medak and forecast Temperature. Hyderabad and Medak are districts of Telangana State, which is a Plateau region and Hyderabad is chosen as it is a thickly populated area whereas Medak is the nearest district to Hyderabad, which has relatively less population. Methods and Statistical analysis: The data is collected from the Indian Meteorological Department,Pune from 1901 to 2019. Data from 1901 to 1996 used for training and 1997 to 2019 data used for testing. Modeling is done keeping in view the deep association between Temperature and Precipitation, through Copula analysis. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the best model in Hyderabad and Medak are found to be 0.04 and 0.09 respectively. R- Software and IBM SPSS statistics version 25 were used to analyze the data and interpret the results. Findings: The best Copula need not be necessarily the same for different data sets. We could find the best Copula for Hyderabad as Rotated Gumbel 270 Copula and for Medak, Frank Copula based on AIC and BIC criteria. The simulated data of Temperature showed a very close agreement with testing data, which can be seen in [Figure 5 (a) & (b)]. Novelty: This type of analysis and model fitting is not found in the literature for Hyderabad and Medak and these districts are in Telangana, the Plateau region. Our fitted models can give a good prediction of Temperature in this region. Keywords: Temperature; Precipitation; Normal distribution; Rotated Gumbel 270 Copula and Frank Copula
Highlights
Over past few decades global warming is assumed to be one of the primary reasons for the irregularities in climatic conditions in the world
The increase and the erratic changes in the temperatures in many parts of the world is because of global warming which is the main reason for disasters such as droughts, heat waves, floods and storms
Our study aims at developing a bi-variate Model for monthly mean average Temperature and Precipitation processes which can be used to simulate Temperature of the selected regions (Hyderabad and Medak districts of Telangana State, which is a Plateau region) taking into consideration data pertaining to a closely related variable, namely Precipitation
Summary
Over past few decades global warming is assumed to be one of the primary reasons for the irregularities in climatic conditions in the world. Rajini & Jayalakshmi / Indian Journal of Science and Technology 2021;14(16):1274–1282 between Temperature and Precipitation, identifying the best possible joint distribution of these two factors is essential In this direction some studies have been taken place. Choubin et al(2), have applied Linear regression with two nonlinear models, the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANSIF) and the multi-layer perceptron to forecast an ensemble season precipitation for semi arid catchment in Iron. Dzupire et al (8), has used the dame Copula analysis to identify interdependency pattern between Temperature and Rainfall He stated that it is difficult to model the bivariate data. Mesbahzadeh et al(9) modeled using Copula analysis for Temperature and Rainfall for Arid region
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