Modeling Syphilis and HIV Coinfection: A Case Study in the USA.

Abstract

Syphilis and HIV infections form a dangerous combination. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model of HIV-syphilis coinfection. The model always has a unique disease-free equilibrium, which is stable when both reproduction numbers of syphilis and HIV are less than 1. If the reproduction number of syphilis (HIV) is greater than 1, there exists a unique boundary equilibrium of syphilis (HIV), which is locally stable if the invasion number of HIV (syphilis) is less than 1. Coexistence equilibrium exists and is stable when all reproduction numbers and invasion numbers are greater than 1. Using data of syphilis cases and HIV cases from the US, we estimated that both reproduction numbers for syphilis and HIV are slightly greater than 1, and the boundary equilibrium of syphilis is stable. In addition, we observed competition between the two diseases. Treatment for primary syphilis is more important in mitigating the transmission of syphilis. However, it might lead to increase of HIV cases. The results derived here could be adapted to other multi-disease scenarios in other regions.