Modeling Sustainable Risks Mitigation Strategies Using a Morphological Analysis-Based Approach: A Real Case Study

Abstract

The supply chain risk management (SCRM) is very critical to strategically support the firms to continuous success. There are, at least, three basic steps in this SCRM process: risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk mitigation (treatment). Whatever happens, the main step is risk mitigation (RM) and mainly sustainable RM. In fact, every risk must be eliminated or controlled as much as possible. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate and evaluate various RM scenarios from an initial risk identification and prioritization solution. The proposed scenario modeling technique is based on morphological analysis (MA) as an explorative scenario tool for RM. MA is used to develop a framework to proactively assess critical risk variables. Firstly, MA is employed to exhaustively create possible RM scenarios and, secondly, to assess the likelihood of each scenario. The proposed approach addresses the need for a basic rubric to help identify and choose RM approaches. A real case study is provided from the food industry to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. To handle all possible MA strategies, a dedicated MORPHOL software package is used. In addition, RM strategies are selected based on sustainability indicators. The case study results prove that MA has a considerable value for SCRM. It shows that firms can adopt multiple robust strategies in the form of a scenario describing all stages of SCRM in an integrated representation.