Modeling Sustainable Nutrition Security

Abstract

Sustainability considerations should be an integral component of food security assessments. Nourishing the expected global population of nine billion in the face of fast diminishing land and water resources and looming climate change has tremendous economic, environmental, and social implications. Furthermore, whereas much past work on food security had focused on feeding the world through more staple crop calories, the current emphasis is on nourishing the global population through the provision of a more nutrient-rich diet. Hence the focus on micronutrient deficiencies (so-called ‘hidden hunger’), dietary diversity, and the nutrient density of the food supply—all critical components of overall nutritional status. To aid future assessments of ‘sustainable nutrition security’, we need a new methodology and some novel assessment metrics and tools. Seven metrics are proposed, each based on a combination of multiple indicators, for use in characterizing sustainable nutrition outcomes of food systems: (1) nutrient adequacy of foods and diets; (2) ecosystem stability; (3) food affordability and availability; (4) sociocultural wellbeing; (5) food safety; (6) resilience; and (7) waste and loss reduction. Each of the metrics comprises multiple indicators that are combined to derive an overall score (0–100). The metrics can be combined with simulation models and then deployed by decision-makers and investors to set meaningful goals, track progress, and evaluate the potential impact of targeted food system interventions. The goal is to improve food system sustainability and resilience and to improve human nutrition and health outcomes.