Abstract
BackgroundBoth short and long birth intervals are associated with many risk factors and about 29% of births are short birth intervals in Ethiopia. The purpose of this study is to model the birth intervals of adult women aged 15–49 years using accelerated failure time and shared frailty models in order to analyze the birth intervals of Ethiopian women.MethodsThe data was obtained from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). Accelerated failure time with different baseline and shared frailty models are used for the analysis to identify important demographic and socio-economic factors affecting the length of birth intervals and correlates of the birth intervals respectively.ResultsThe data consists of 9147 women, of which about 7842 (85.5%) are closed interval and the rest of 1323(14.5%) are open interval. Accelerated failure time (AFT) result revealed that women education level, husbands education level, age at first birth, marital status, religion and family wealth index are significant factors affecting birth interval of women in Ethiopia.ConclusionWomen with closely spaced births tend to have larger family sizes when compared with women with longer inter-birth interval. Longer successive birth interval tends to reduce the total fertility rate of women. Furthermore, improvements in socio-economic status and level of education of women associate with reduced fertility, improved maternal and child wellbeing, and longer birth interval.
Highlights
Both short and long birth intervals are associated with many risk factors and about 29% of births are short birth intervals in Ethiopia
In the societies where births are confined to marriage, reproduction starts from the onset of effective marriage, and the birth interval following effective marriage depends on the demographic characteristic of women at the earlier stages of married life [16]
The data for this study was extracted from the dataset of Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS, 2016).The Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS, 2016) which is part of worldwide DHS project and the fourth survey belonging to the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) collected from18 January 2016 to 27 June
Summary
Both short and long birth intervals are associated with many risk factors and about 29% of births are short birth intervals in Ethiopia. The purpose of this study is to model the birth intervals of adult women aged 15–49 years using accelerated failure time and shared frailty models in order to analyze the birth intervals of Ethiopian women. High fertility is defined as a total fertility rate of 5.0 or higher. Total fertility rate represents the average lifetime births per woman implied by the age-specific fertility rates prevailing in one historical period [3]. Birth of the first child is the first visible sign of fertility because it marks a woman’s transition to motherhood. It has a significant role in individual women’s life because of its direct relationship with fertility. Ever since the international conference on population and development (ICPD) in 1994, fertility patterns in the world
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