Modeling Structural Changes in Intra-Asian Maritime Container Shipping Networks Considering Their Characteristics

Abstract

In East Asia, where several large hub ports exist, maritime container shipping (MCS) has developed rapidly, and the MCS network has become more complex. This study develops a link prediction model that reproduces the changes in the structure of the intra-Asian oceangoing MCS network using graph theory. To improve the prediction accuracy, we propose a method that reflects the generation of a link considering the node and link characteristics of the MCS network, including the port performance and shipping distance between ports. Consequently, we conclude: (1) The intra-Asian oceangoing MCS network has expanded from 2011 to 2021 as the trading partners and trade volume have increased. (2) The usefulness of the proposed model is confirmed. In particular, the proposed model is good at predicting the new links between ports with short distances. (3) The prediction accuracy of link disappearance remains to be improved.