Modeling spatiotemporal CO2 (carbon dioxide) emission dynamics in China from DMSP-OLS nighttime stable light data using panel data analysis

Abstract

China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization have resulted in a great deal of CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions, which is closely related to its sustainable development and the long term stability of global climate. This study proposes panel data analysis to model spatiotemporal CO2 emission dynamics at a higher resolution in China by integrating the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime stable light (NSL) data with statistic data of CO2 emissions. Spatiotemporal CO2 emission dynamics were assessed from national scale down to regional and urban agglomeration scales. The evaluation showed that there was a true positive correlation between NSL data and statistic CO2 emissions in China at the provincial level from 1997 to 2012, which could be suitable for estimating CO2 emissions at 1km resolution. The spatiotemporal CO2 emission dynamics between different regions varied greatly. The high-growth type and high-grade of CO2 emissions were mainly distributed in the Eastern region, Shandong Peninsula and Middle south of Liaoning, with clearly lower concentrations in the Western region, Central region and Sichuan–Chongqing. The results of this study will enhance the understanding of spatiotemporal variations of CO2 emissions in China. They will provide a scientific basis for policy-making on viable CO2 emission mitigation policies.