Abstract
AbstractAssessing the avalanche danger level requires snow stratigraphy and instability data. As such data are usually sparse, we investigated whether distributed snow cover modeling can be used to provide information on spatial instability patterns relevant for regional avalanche forecasting. Using Alpine3D, we performed spatially distributed simulations to evaluate snow instability for the winter season 2016–17 in the region of Davos, Switzerland. Meteorological data from automatic weather stations were interpolated to 100 m horizontal resolution and precipitation was scaled with snow depth measurements from airborne laser scanning. Modeled snow instability metrics assessed for two different weak layers suggested that the weak layer closer to the snow surface was more variable. Initially, it was less stable than the weak layer closer to the ground, yet it stabilized faster as the winter progressed. In spring, the simulated snowpack on south-facing slopes stabilized faster than on north-facing slopes, in line with the regional avalanche forecast. In the winter months January to March 2017, simulated instability metrics did not suggest that the snowpack on south-facing slopes was more stable, as reported in the regional avalanche forecast. Although a validation with field data is lacking, these model results still show the potential and challenges of distributed modeling for supporting operational avalanche forecasting.
Highlights
To inform the public on the avalanche danger in mountainous areas, avalanche forecasters publish an avalanche bulletin on a daily basis in winter
Modeled snow instability metrics were assessed for two prominent persistent weak layers and the overall snowpack structure was investigated for almost 14 000 grid points
The winter season 2016–17 was marked by below-average snow depths and prominent persistent weak layers at the base of the snowpack
Summary
To inform the public on the avalanche danger in mountainous areas, avalanche forecasters publish an avalanche bulletin on a daily basis in winter. The avalanche danger is evaluated for different regions, which have an area of typically 200 km in Switzerland (Techel and Schweizer, 2017). Numerical snow cover models can increase spatial and temporal resolution of such data. To this end, snow cover models have to provide the detailed snow stratigraphy and ideally information on snow instability. Snow cover models are not yet widely integrated into avalanche forecasting (Morin and others, 2020), one of the reasons being the lack of providing relevant information on snow instability
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