Abstract
This article applies a Markov chain method to compute the probability of residential fire occurrence based on past fire history. Fitted with the fire incidence data gathered over a period of 10 years in Melbourne, Australia, the spatially-integrated fire risk model predicts the likely occurrence of fire incidents using space and time as key model parameters. The mapped probabilities of fire occurrence across Melbourne show a city-centric spatial pattern where inner-city areas are relatively more vulnerable to a fire than outer suburbia. Fire risk reduces in a neighborhood when there is at least one fire in the last 1 month. The results show that the time threshold of reduced fire risk after the fire occurrence is about 2 months. Fire risk increases when there is no fire in the last 1 month within the third-order neighborhood (within 5 km). A fire that occurs within this distance range, however, has no significant effect on reducing fire risk level within the neighborhood. The spatial–temporal dependencies of fire risk provide new empirical evidence useful for fire agencies to effectively plan and implement geo-targeted fire risk interventions and education programs to mitigate potential fire risk in areas where and when they are most needed.
Highlights
Residential fire is a fire that has occurred in residential property only
We provide the results of the estimation of residential fire risk using the Markov chain method and the key findings that are related to the space and time context of fire risk
The results indicate that the spatial distribution of high fire incident values and/or low values in the dataset is more spatially clustered than would be expected if underlying spatial processes were random (p = 0.001)
Summary
Residential fire (called fire hereafter) is a fire that has occurred in residential property only. An exposure to the source of fire ignition, such as a live flame or a spark that is further fuelled by the presence of combustible materials, faulty electrical wiring, or cooking devices, directly contributes to fire risk. It hinges on an individual’s perception of fire risk, often exhibited by in situ behavior such as alcohol drinking habits and preparedness to respond to threat from fire. Fire risk is difficult to examine as it is driven by a multitude of interwoven factors
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