Abstract
This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global forest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005, 102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2]. Forest productivity was increased in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) in proportion to the rising [CO2] projected in the IPCC scenario A1B, A2, and B2. Projections of the forest area and forest stock and of the production, consumption, prices, and trade of products ranging from fuelwood to paper and paperboard were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario, with and without CO2 fertilization beginning in 2011 and up to 2065. CO2 fertilization increased wood supply, leading to lower wood prices which in turn induced modest lower prices of end products and higher global consumption. However, production and value added in industries decreased in some regions due to the relative competitive advantages and to the varying regional effects of CO2 fertilization. The main effect of CO2 fertilization was to raise the level of the world forest stock in 2065 by 9 to 10 % for scenarios A2 and B2 and by 20 % for scenario A1B. The rise in forest stock induced by fertilization was in part counteracted by its stimulation of the wood supply which resulted in lower wood prices and increased harvests.
Highlights
This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global forest sector
Net primary productivity (NPP) can be stimulated by the increase in atmospheric CO2. This phenomenon, referred to as “CO2 fertilization”, has been incorporated into vegetation models to predict its consequences for climate change and carbon dynamics (Thompson et al 2004). Another consequence of CO2 fertilization is its impact on forest stock and on wood supply and forest industries which is addressed in this study
Based on the findings of Norby et al (2005) about forest response to elevated CO2 concentration it was assumed that the effect of CO2 fertilization on forest growth would be conserved across a broad range of productivity, with an average stimulation of 23 % for a 180 ppm increase of atmospheric [CO2]
Summary
This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global forest sector. According to the International Panel on Climate Change, atmospheric [CO2] could reach 600 to 900 ppm in 2100, depending on varying scenarios concerning economic and demographic growth, and mitigation policies (IPCC 2013) This rise in [CO2] has consequences for climate change as it influences directly global temperature levels (IPCC 2012, Zickfeld et al 2012). This later role means that forests can be part of a negative feedback working against atmospheric CO2 accumulation In this process, net primary productivity (NPP) can be stimulated by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Net primary productivity (NPP) can be stimulated by the increase in atmospheric CO2 This phenomenon, referred to as “CO2 fertilization”, has been incorporated into vegetation models to predict its consequences for climate change and carbon dynamics (Thompson et al 2004). Another consequence of CO2 fertilization is its impact on forest stock and on wood supply and forest industries which is addressed in this study
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