Modeling Single Establishment Firm Returns to the 2007 Economic Census

Abstract

The Economic Census is one of the most important activities that the U.S. Census Bureau performs. It is critical for updating firm ownership structure and industry information for a large number of businesses in the Census Bureau’s Business Register, impacting most other economic programs. We model the check-in rate for single-establishment firms by using a large number of variables that might be correlated with whether or not a firm returns a form in the Economic Census. These variables are broadly categorized as the characteristics of firms, measures of external factors, and the features of the survey design. We use the model for two purposes. First, by studying many of the factors that may be correlated with returns we aim to focus limited advertising and outreach resources to low-return segments of the population. Second, we use the model to investigate the efficacy of an unplanned intervention targeted at increasing return rates: using certified mailing for one of the form follow-ups.