Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control

Alicia N M Kraay,David Demory,Joshua S Weitz,Conan Y Zhao,Benjamin A Lopman,Kristin N Nelson

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26774-y

Alicia N M Kraay, David Demory + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26774-y

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Abstract

Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a transmission model, we examine how serological testing could have enabled seropositive individuals to increase their relative levels of social interaction while offsetting transmission risks. We simulate widespread serological testing in New York City, South Florida, and Washington Puget Sound and assume seropositive individuals partially restore their social contacts. Compared to no intervention, our model suggests that widespread serological testing starting in late 2020 would have averted approximately 3300 deaths in New York City, 1400 deaths in South Florida and 11,000 deaths in Washington State by June 2021. In all sites, serological testing blunted subsequent waves of transmission. Findings demonstrate the potential benefit of widespread serological testing, had it been implemented in the pre-vaccine era, and remain relevant now amid the potential for emergence of new variants.

Highlights

Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID19 pandemic
SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in late 2019 leading to the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 213 million detected cases and over 4.4 million deaths globally and approximately 38 million detected cases and 643,000 deaths reported in the U.S as of August 24, 20211
To evaluate the epidemiological consequences of using mass serological testing to inform the relaxation of social distancing measures in the pre-vaccine era, we modeled transmission dynamics and serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 using a deterministic, compartmental SEIR-like model (Fig. 1)

Summary

Introduction

Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID19 pandemic. Federal social distancing guidelines expired on April Relaxing these social distancing policies resulted in increased community transmission, and case counts increased as states further relaxed restrictions on public gatherings, restaurant dining, and operation of businesses[5]. The rise of more transmissible variants of concern[6,7] as well as the possibility of variants that escape natural or vaccine-derived immunity[8] continues to require vigilance in the event that COVID-19 incidence increases again. This fourth wave reinforces the need to evaluate other measures—including individualized policies based on disease or immune status—as part of integrative response campaigns[9]

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