Modeling Scenarios of Adaptation of Regional Socio-Ecological and Economic Systems to Global Climate Change

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the fact that in recent decades a socio-economic development of the territories of states and regions has been significantly affected by global climate change. Due to changes in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, etc. fires are occurring; individual ecosystems are being transformed, which in turn negatively affects the quality of life of the population as well as the development of industries and economic systems. All of the above, on the one hand, emphasizes the relevance of developing tools and models for assessing the consequences of such an impact, and, on the other hand, highlights the need to develop a special adaptive mechanism for managing the socio-ecological and economic system, taking into account the impact of climate change. Accordingly, the aim of the work was to develop a model for the implementation of scenarios and forecasting the consequences of global climate change for regional socio-ecological and economic systems. To achieve this goal, the authors put forward a hypothesis about the possibility of developing and constructing an instrumental numerical model that allows, based on long-term statistical data, for modeling scenarios of adaptation of multi-level (both global and regional) socio-ecological and economic systems to the consequences of global climate change. To achieve this goal, a set of general scientific and economic-mathematical methods was used, mutually complementing each other, including methods of abstract-logical analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), methods of system dynamics, etc. The authors obtained the following results: firstly, an analytical model of adaptive development of the regional socio-ecological-economic system was developed; secondly, a list of basic prerequisites that have a fundamental impact on this system due to climate change was substantiated; thirdly, a forecast model was proposed of a stable trajectory of the development of a regional socio-ecological-economic system under the conditions of global climate change. The scientific significance of the study is to expand scientific knowledge about approaches to modeling scenarios for adaptation of socio-ecological-economic systems to global climate change. The practical significance of the work consists in the possibility of using the results for the development and improvement of plans for the adaptation of Russia's regions to climate change, including in the areas of environmental management and economic activity, civil defense, protection of the population and territories from natural and man-made emergencies.