Modeling SARS-CoV-2 spread with dynamic isolation

Md Azmir Ibne Islam,Ashrafur Rahman,Sharmin Sultana Shanta

doi:10.5206/mase/13886

Md Azmir Ibne Islam, Ashrafur Rahman + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/13886

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Abstract

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is spreading with a greater intensity across the globe. The synchrony of public health interventions and epidemic waves signify the importance of evaluation of the underline interventions. Method: We developed a mathematical model to present the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and to analyze the impact of key nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation and screening program on the disease outcomes to the people of New Jersey, USA. We introduced a dynamic isolation of susceptible population with a constant (imposed) and infection oriented interventions. Epidemiological and demographic data are used to estimate the model parameters. The baseline case was explored further to showcase several critical and predictive scenarios. Results and analysis: The model simulations are in good agreement with the infection data for the period of 5 March 2020 to 31 January 2021. Dynamic isolation and screening program are found to be potential measures that can alter the course of epidemic. A 7% increase in isolation rate may result in a 31% reduction of epidemic peak whereas a 3 times increase in screening rate may reduce the epidemic peak by 35%. The model predicts that nearly 9.7% to 12% of the total population of New Jersey may become infected within the middle of July 2021 along with 24.6 to 27.3 thousand cumulative deaths. Within a wide spectrum of probable scenarios, there is a possibility of third wave Conclusion: Our findings could be informative to the public health community to contain the pandemic in the case of economy reopening under a limited or no vaccine coverage. Additional epidemic waves can be avoided by appropriate screening and isolation plans.

Highlights

Public health communities are facing unprecedented challenges to control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, largely, due to the limitation of effective vaccines and lack of therapeutic treatment
Dynamic isolation and screening program are found to be potential measures that can alter the course of epidemic
A 7% increase in isolation rate may result in a 31% reduction of epidemic peak whereas a 3 times increase in screening rate may reduce the epidemic peak by 35%

Summary

Introduction

Public health communities are facing unprecedented challenges to control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, largely, due to the limitation of effective vaccines and lack of therapeutic treatment. In the absence of vaccines, nonpharmaceutical interventions such as screening, isolation, social distancing, quarantine, maintaining public hygiene (wearing mask and washing hands frequently) and contact tracing are in place to curtail the pandemic [7]. These measurements are highly potential to eliminate a pandemic, they are not socioeconomically friendly and may become impracticable for a long run. Mathematical models have been used to assess the effectiveness of the control measures and to guide the public health policy. The synchrony of public health interventions and epidemic waves signify the importance of evaluation of the underline interventions

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