Modeling Risk in Fusarium Head Blight and Yield Analysis in Five Winter Wheat Production Regions of Hungary

Abstract

The five-year mean yield of five Hungarian wheat production counties was 5.59 t ha−1 with a 7.02% average coefficient of variation. There was a regional effect on yield when progressing from south to north with a 1–2 °C higher mean winter air temperature, meaning that the Ta in southern counties increased the five-season mean yield by 15.9% (p = 0.002) compared to the yield of northern counties. Logistic regression models developed to assess the FHB risk driven by a few meteorological variables (Ta; RH) provided proper predictive performance. The results in the regression model were validated against the measured infection rates (P%) provided by the NÉBIH 30 days before and after heading. The FHB pressure was comparatively higher in Zala County, probably due to its special topological and growing conditions, irrespective of the season. Across all areas studied, two of the five identified counties (Pest and Somogy) provided the best classification for FHB infection. In the remaining three counties, the seasonal mean prediction accuracy (differences) exceeded 10% in only 6 out of 30 model outputs. The modeled five-season P% values averaged 70.4% and 93.2% of the measured infection rates for models 1 and 2, respectively. The coincidence of wet and warm weather around the time of wheat flowering enhanced the risk of FHB.