Modeling Reliability Analysis for the Branch-Based Irrigation Water Demands Due to Uncertainties in the Measured Surface Runoff

Abstract

This study aims to model the uncertainty and reliability quantification of estimating the planning irrigation water demands in the multi-canal irrigation zone, named the RA_IWD_Canal model. The proposed RA_IWD_Canal could estimate the zone-based and branch-based water demands and quantify their uncertainties and reliabilities via the weighted frequency quantile curves. The historical planning irrigation water demands and measured surface runoff from 2019 to 2024 in the Zhudong irrigation zone are utilized in the model development and application. Using the proposed RA_IWD_Canal model, the estimated branch-based irrigation water demands exhibit a significant variation (on average, from 0.02 m3/s to 1.7 m3/s) in time and space attributed to uncertainties in the historical gauged surface runoff. Also, the Zhudong Canal zone is demonstrated to be sufficiently supplied irrigation water subject to existing introduced water demands with a high reliability of 0.85; instead, the associated branches have considerable difficulty achieving the expected irrigation efficiency based on the desired water requirements with low reliability (nearly 0.25). To keep all branches in the irrigation zone consistent in irrigation efficiency, the probabilistic-based water demands could be introduced via the proposed RA_IWD_Canal model with the desired reliability.