Modeling red-light running behavior using high-resolution event-based data: a finite mixture modeling approach

Abstract

To effectively reduce the number of red-light violations and crashes, it is crucial to explore RLR behavior at local intersections, understand the contributing factors, and identify the riskiest intersections by estimating RLR frequency. In this study, a finite mixture modeling method was utilized to understand the contributing factors to RLR behavior and estimate this violating behavior. To develop the RLR estimation models, performance metrics and signal phasing data were collected from the Automated Traffic Signal Performance Measures (ATSPMs) system in two jurisdictions in Arizona: Pima County and the Town of Marana. The results from calibrated models showed that an increase in traffic flow, intersection delay, number of approach lanes, and split failure is associated with an increase in the likelihood of observing red-light violations. In addition, it was found that an increase in cycle length is associated with a decrease in the likelihood of observing the red-light violation. The results of comparing the proposed RLR estimation method with several conventional methods, the Poisson Generalized Linear Model (PGLM), Zero-inflated Poisson Regression Model (ZIPM), and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Regression Model (ZINB) showed the proposed method outperforms all the models in terms of both model fit and accuracy. The application of the proposed method could be used to analyze the intersections with the highest number of red-light violations. Furthermore, the presented transferability results can be advantageous to transportation agencies within Arizona and urban areas with similar characteristics by providing insight into which model specifications may provide the best RLR estimation accuracy.