Modeling Profitability in the Jamaican Coffee Industry

Abstract

It is well known that producers of agricultural products do not able to capture most of the value from what they grow. As such, it is important for producers to be attuned to the various factors that impact the viability of their products. One such potential avenue for coffee producers is developing a strong awareness of profitability across their respective geographic regions. This research presents a fine-scale geospatial profitability model for coffee production using the test case of the Jamaican Coffee Industry, a sector which once guaranteed profitability but now presents variable (often losing) returns for many producers, this research presents a cost-surface model for coffee production in the island of Jamaica. Results indicated large scale profitability in the 2016–2017 coffee year but limited profitability in the 2019–2019 coffee year, highlighting the important role of revenue fluctuation in island-wide profitability. Results underscore importance of scenario planning in the coffee production cycle. By understanding the spatial properties of profitability producers will obtain better decision-making insight for production and management decisions in the coffee industry around the world. The geospatial profitability model establishes a baseline approach that can be accessed by industry stakeholders of varying technological capacities.