Modeling Probability of Ignition in Taiwan Red Pine Forests

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to model the relationship between simulated human-caused fires and biophysical variables related to meteorological factors and fuel properties in Taiwan red pine forests. The experiment was carried out from August to December 1998 in the Dajashi National Forest. Three to 5 days were randomly selected to conduct the experiment monthly. Ignitions were performed hourly by igniting wooden matches and dropping them simultaneously onto a fuel bed within the period from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. on each sampling day. A logistic model was chosen to analyze the tests. One hundred and nine trials were conducted, and 46 of these trials were successful ignitions. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used respectively to fit the model. Results show that the best individual predictors were moisture content of pine needles (R^2=0.83) and relative humidity (R^2=0.82) in univariate regression analysis. Three variables, fuel moisture content of pine needles, wind speed, and fuel shading, fit the multivariate model (R^2=0.93). Results indicate that the equations can be used to help predict fire danger in Taiwan red pine forests.