Abstract
The South-Central United States, which includes the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Arkansas, represents an important segment of the softwood sawtimber market. By using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method to account for the linkage among the four contiguous timber markets, this study examines the dynamics of softwood sawtimber stumpage markets within the region. Based on quarterly data from 1981 to 2014, the findings reveal that both pulpwood and chip-and-saw (CNS) prices have a positive influence on the Texas and Arkansas sawtimber markets. Moreover, Granger-causality tests suggest that unidirectional causality runs from pulpwood and CNS markets to the respective sawtimber market. Compared to the pre-financial crisis period, sawtimber prices in these four states are 9%–17% lower in the recent years.
Highlights
The beginning of the 21st century has marked both a high and low water mark for the NorthAmerican forest products industry
As timber harvests curtailed substantially due to a closure of several industrial roundwood mills, total pine inventory in the U.S South increased at an annual rate of 1.2% from 86.3 billion cubic feet (1 cubic feet of sawtimber = 0.004112 thousand board feet ( MBF, Doyle) in 2000 to 102.0 billion cubic feet in
The main purpose of this study is to examine the dynamics of softwood sawtimber stumpage markets, and to investigate the relationship among the markets of three major softwood forest product types—sawtimber, CNS and pulpwood—in the U.S South-Central region
Summary
U.S housing starts peaked in 2005, along with record highs in lumber and structural panel production. The demand for solid wood building products (e.g., lumber and structural panels) has been muted in the last several years [1]. As a result of the reduced demand for lumber and other solid wood building products and associated reduction in manufacturing, stumpage prices for sawtimber in the U.S South declined around 37% over the last ten-year period [2]. As timber harvests curtailed substantially due to a closure of several industrial roundwood mills, total pine inventory in the U.S South increased at an annual rate of 1.2% from 86.3 billion cubic feet (1 cubic feet of sawtimber = 0.004112 thousand board feet ( MBF, Doyle) in 2000 to 102.0 billion cubic feet in
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