Modeling, prediction and analysis of natural gas consumption in China using a novel dynamic nonlinear multivariable grey delay model

Abstract

Accurately predicting natural gas consumption is essential for developing a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system. Therefore, this paper integrates the idea of the extended logistic model into multivariable grey prediction theory. Considering the delay effect and nonlinear characteristics of the system, a novel dynamic nonlinear multivariate grey delay prediction model is constructed. Meanwhile, the algorithmic framework for solving the parameters of the new model is provided to identify and optimize the parameters of the time-delay effect of the model. The genetic algorithm was identified as the best matching optimization algorithm for the new model. Furthermore, the new model is applied to fitting and forecasting China's natural gas consumption, and the validity of the model is fully verified. Compared with other forecasting models, the new model has a lower average relative error in the fitting and forecasting stage, and, in particular, achieves a better forecasting effect with the lowest MAPEpre value (0.001 % for one-step ahead, 0.005 % for two-step ahead, and 0.746 % for three-step ahead). Moreover, the model is employed to forecast China's natural gas consumption for the next five years, providing a robust foundation for government policies related to the supply of natural gas.