Modeling policy networks: The case of Natura 2000 in Croatian forestry

Abstract

Natura 2000, the largest network of protected areas in the world, is the EU's approach to the protection of its habitats and species. National implementations of the directives that define it should be based on scientific argumentation but practice has showed that they are affected by stakeholders, whose power relations and different normative standpoints have led to very diverse formal and practical implementations of the Network. Croatia as the 28th EU member country has faced the same process, where a working group has been established in order to define which forest areas should be protected under Natura 2000 and which management measures should be implemented to protect forest-dependent species.The study follows the activities of the working group, with a goal to assess how the interpersonal influence and inter-organizational power relations have affected its decisions. Analysis is focused on the usage of social influence network theory and models of network dynamics. Primary data is drawn from 4 questionnaires distributed to 43 respondents.Although the decisions of the working groups should have been based on scientific argumentation, 71% of variance in final policy preferences can be explained through social influence model. Results also show polarization of actors on the forestry and nature protection sector, both within the working group and between the organizations represented in it. Forestry sector was dominant on both levels, and most of the decisions are closer to its position. Modeled outcome decisions both from the interpersonal and inter-organizational level are better predictors of actual decisions than the initial opinions. This points to applicability of the presented models as decision support tools in different stages of the policy cycle; for example, in the evaluation stage they can be used to assess the empowerment of marginalized groups and to assess conditions for more consensual decision making. Results also show strong increase frequency and strength of cross-sectoral ties, which may be beneficial for the subsequent steps of the implementation of the network in Croatia.