Abstract
Understanding the effects of climate change on planktonic ecosystems requires the synthesis of large, diverse data sets of variables that often interact in nonlinear ways. One fruitful approach to this synthesis is the use of numerical models. Here, we describe how models have been used to gain understanding of the physical-biological couplings leading to decadal changes in the southern California Current ecosystem. Moving from basin scales to local scales, we show how atmospheric, physical oceanographic, and biological dynamics interact to create long-term fluctuations in the dynamics of the California Current ecosystem.
Highlights
Advances in computing power have enabled us to perform global-scale simulations with high regional-scale resolution. Combining such models with the long-term data sets offered by programs such as California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) and California Current Ecosystem Long Term Ecological Research (CCE LTER) gives us the opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the atmospheric and oceanic forcings that result in the observed biological fluctuations
We describe some of the novel insights we have gained by using models to explore the physical-biological couplings underlying the interannual and decadal fluctuations observed in the California Current System (CCS)
Summary We have shown a few examples of how we have used models to tease apart the coupling of basin-scale atmospheric forcing with ocean dynamics and its potential to affect basin-scale, regional, and local biological dynamics in the CCS
Summary
Combining such models with the long-term data sets offered by programs such as CalCOFI and California Current Ecosystem Long Term Ecological Research (CCE LTER) gives us the opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the atmospheric and oceanic forcings that result in the observed biological fluctuations. The model ensemble mean solution showed that the physical-biological models reproduced much of the observed lowfrequency fluctuation of temperature, salinity, nutrients, and chlorophyll a in the 60-year-long CalCOFI (California Current) and Line-P (Gulf of Alaska) data sets (Figure 1).
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