Modeling Pesticide Effects on Multiple Threatened and Endangered Cyprinid Fish Species: The Role of Life-History Traits and Ecology

Abstract

Mechanistic models are invaluable in ecological risk assessment (ERA) because they facilitate extrapolation of organism-level effects to population-level effects while accounting for species life history, ecology, and vulnerability. In this work, we developed a model framework to compare the potential effects of the fungicide chlorothalonil across four listed species of cyprinid fish and explore species-specific traits of importance at the population level. The model is an agent-based model based on the dynamic energy budget theory. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic sub-models were used for representing direct effects, whereas indirect effects were described by decreasing food availability. Exposure profiles were constructed based on hydroxychlorothalonil, given the relatively short half-life of parent chlorothalonil. Different exposure magnification factors were required to achieve a comparable population decrease across species. In particular, those species producing fewer eggs and with shorter lifespans appeared to be more vulnerable. Moreover, sequentially adding effect sub-models resulted in different outcomes depending on the interplay of life-history traits and density-dependent compensation effects. We conclude by stressing the importance of using models in ERA to account for species-specific characteristics and ecology, especially when dealing with listed species and in accordance with the necessity of reducing animal testing.