Abstract
This paper introduces an urban growth simulation model applied to the full scope of China. The model uses a multicriteria decision analysis to calculate the land conversion probability and then integrates it with a cellular automata model. A nonlinear relationship is incorporated in to the model to interpret the impacts of different Land Use and Cover Change driving forces. The Analytical Hierarchical Process is also implemented to compute the variance between weights of different factors. Multiple sizes of neighborhood and different urban ratios in the model rules are tested, and a 5 × 5 neighborhood and an urban threshold of 0.33 are chosen. The study demonstrates the importance of spatial analysis on socioeconomic factors, population, and Gross Domestic Product in land use change simulation modeling. The model fills the gap between the purely economic theory simulation model and the geographic simulation model. The nationwide urban simulation is an example that addresses the lack of urban simulation studies in China and among large-scale simulation models.
Highlights
There has been long-term steady urban growth worldwide
In a cellular automata model, the state of a cell at time t + 1 is the result of its own state at time t and the state of its neighbors under certain conditions. In this urban growth research, the state of the cell at t + 1 (1) is a function of (a) its own state at time t; (b) the land suitability score generated by the multicriteria analysis on independent drivers; and (c) its neighbors’ states under specific rules, which is explained
When we conducted simulations using neighborhoods of 3 × 3 and 5 × 5, new urban cells occurred adjacent to a small area of original urban land use, which is true in reality
Summary
There has been long-term steady urban growth worldwide. Developing countries have been the major contributors to urbanization. Urban expansion has increased at a higher rate than the urban population, and rapid expansion has led cities to face enormous challenges [1], such as uncontrolled informal settlement, insufficient urban service [2], climate change and global warming [3,4], negative effects on social-environmental responses [1,5], and consumption of agriculture and natural land [6]. Simulations of the future urbanized area can assist the government and urban planners in policy making, land use, and land management in response to fast economic development and rapid population growth. Such simulations are typically generated using urban growth models and mapped with GIS and remote sensing techniques
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