Abstract
Particulate matter originates from a variety of sources in Makkah, Saudi Arabia. Since Makkah is situated in an arid region and is a very busy city due to its religious importance in the Muslim world, PM10 concentrations here exceed the international and national air quality standards set for the protection of human health. The main aim of this paper is to model PM10 concentrations with the aid of meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and relative humidity) and traffic related air pollutant concentrations (carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and lag_PM10 concentrations), which are measured at the same location near Al-Haram (the Holy Mosque) in Makkah. A Generalized Additive Model was developed for predicting hourly PM10 concentrations. Predicted and observed PM10 concentrations are compared, and several metrics, including the coefficients of determination (R2 = 0.52), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE = 84), Fractional Bias (FB = –0.22) and Factor of 2 (FAC2 = 0.88), are calculated to assess the performance of the model. The results of these, along with a graphical comparison of the predicted and observed concentrations, show that model is able to perform well. While effects of all the covariates were significant (p-value ＜ 0.01), the meteorological variables, such as temperature and wind speed, seem to be the major controlling factors with regard to PM10 concentrations. Traffic related air pollutants showed a weak association with PM10 concentrations, suggesting road traffic is not the major source of these. No modeling study has been published with regards to air pollution in Makkah and thus this is the first work of this kind. Further work is required to characterize road traffic flow, speed and composition and quantify the contribution of each source, which is part of the ongoing project for managing the air quality in Makkah.
Highlights
Fine particles are considered to be responsible for respiratory health effects
The main aim of this paper is to model PM10 concentrations with the aid of meteorological variables and traffic related air pollutant concentrations (carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and lag_PM10 concentrations), which are measured at the same location near Al-Haram in Makkah
This study aims to model variations in PM10 concentration with the help of meteorological variables and traffic related air pollutants (e.g., CO and NOx)
Summary
Fine particles are considered to be responsible for respiratory health effects. There is a strong link between elevated particle concentration and increased mortality and morbidity (WHO, 2004). Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer (WHO, 2004; Hassan, 2006). Smaller particles have a greater reactive surface area than. The reasons for the high particulate matter concentrations are most probably high volume of traffic, construction work, resuspension of particles, geographical conditions (Arid Regions) and the role of atmospheric conditions. Most of the area of Saudi Arabia is made of deserts, leading to
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