Modeling pandemic to endemic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using parameters estimated from animal model data.

Abstract

The contours of endemic coronaviral disease in humans and other animals are shaped by the tendency of coronaviruses to generate new variants superimposed upon nonsterilizing immunity. Consequently, patterns of coronaviral reinfection in animals can inform the emerging endemic state of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We generated controlled reinfection data after high and low risk natural exposure or heterologous vaccination to sialodacryoadenitis virus (SDAV) in rats. Using deterministic compartmental models, we utilized in vivo estimates from these experiments to model the combined effects of variable transmission rates, variable duration of immunity, successive waves of variants, and vaccination on patterns of viral transmission. Using rat experiment-derived estimates, an endemic state achieved by natural infection alone occurred after a median of 724 days with approximately 41.3% of the population susceptible to reinfection. After accounting for translationally altered parameters between rat-derived data and human SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and after introducing vaccination, we arrived at a median time to endemic stability of 1437 (IQR = 749.25) days with a median 15.4% of the population remaining susceptible. We extended the models to introduce successive variants with increasing transmissibility and included the effect of varying duration of immunity. As seen with endemic coronaviral infections in other animals, transmission states are altered by introduction of new variants, even with vaccination. However, vaccination combined with natural immunity maintains a lower prevalence of infection than natural infection alone and provides greater resilience against the effects of transmissible variants.