Modeling on naturalization of inflow and outflow nutrients sources of Blue Nile River at the Lake Tana in Basaltic Plateau of Ethiopia

Abstract

Lake Tana is the largest natural reservoir in Ethiopia and the head water of Abbay basin. However, after building of an irrigation weir and further lying Tunnel to Tana Belles, Lake Tana maximum amplitude of water level canges from 2.18 to 3.56 m that differ substantially in 1.38 m from amplitude of natural water level fluctuation. Understanding the natural characteristics of the Lake is important to know its water balance and for sustainable development. But it is difficult to study the natural characteristics of the Lake and its water balance using the regulated water level and outflow data sets. Thus it is evident that the regulated water level and outflow data sets have to be first naturalized before they are used for any analysis and modeling. Lake level and outflow data that have been collected since 1976 were considered to assess the regulation effect and then for naturalization. Inflows to the Lake from the main tributaries have also been collected to find if there are any correlations with either the Lake Level and/or the outflow. Regression analyses were used to develop the naturalization models. The regression analyses of flows from Gilgel Abay and Gummar with Lake Level shows that there is a very good correlation between them in different seasons. Besides, same has also been observed between Lake Level and out flow. These relationships can be used to naturalize the regulated outflow and water level.