Abstract
Offshore wind farm is a key item in green energy and sustainable development. The Taiwan strait owns the world-class wind farm with average wind speed of 12 m/s and a potential for 3000 hours/year of power generation. Compared to wind turbines on land, the offshore wind turbine provide more stable power and less obstacles as well as less power loss. The potential and advantages of offshore wind farm development in the Taiwan strait has become the aims of the Taiwan government policy from now to 2025. This research will collect the historical climate data (wind and wave) of the Taiwan offshore wind farm in the Chan-hwa county. Combined the productivity loss respected to the installation of wind turbine due to different wind speed effect, as well as the productivity loss respected to the construction of pile foundation due to different wave height effect, this study will build up a total project duration forecast system based on the historical climate data of the offshore wind farm. Even the literature views from the experienced projects in North Europe including UK, Netherland and Spain, the climate uncertainty still plays a significant factor of the total construction duration for offshore wind farm. The results of this research can provide a more scientific and reliable duration forecast for future offshore wind farms construction in Taiwan.
Highlights
Due to the rapid depletion of natural resource, wind energy has been obtaining a considerable attention as an alternative to conventional fossil, coal, or nuclear sources of energy in recent decades
Combined the productivity loss respected to the installation of wind turbine due to different wind speed effect, as well as the productivity loss respected to the construction of pile foundation due to different wave height effect, this study will build up a total project duration forecast system based on the historical climate data of the offshore wind farm
Lifting tasks of wind turbine construction projects are very sensitive to the adverse impact of wind uncertainty, which often leads to significant loss of productivity and, even worse, complete suspension of construction tasks as a result of severe impact of strong wind
Summary
Due to the rapid depletion of natural resource, wind energy has been obtaining a considerable attention as an alternative to conventional fossil, coal, or nuclear sources of energy in recent decades. Forecasting the future durations for wind-sensitive tasks in advance is useful for schedule planning in order to avoid the adverse impact of wind uncertainties, which often lead to productivity loss. With the assistance of professional expertise, the incorporation of fuzzy-set approach, as well as the utilization of historical wind speed data, this research presents a fuzzy duration forecast model for wind turbine construction project subject to the impact of wind uncertainties. An application example using this model to forecast the duration of wind-sensitive tasks is presented using actual wind speed data from Taiwan. This model is easier to follow and simpler to apply. The duration can be more accurately predicted even though without much relevant working experience provided
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