Modeling of Various Spatial Patterns of SARS-CoV-2: The Case of Germany.

Albina Mościcka,Damian Kiliszek,Marta Kuźma,Andrzej Araszkiewicz,Jakub Wabiński

doi:10.3390/jcm10071409

Albina Mościcka, Damian Kiliszek + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10071409

Copy DOI

Abstract

Among numerous publications about the SARS-CoV-2, many articles present research from the geographic point of view. The cartographic research method used in this area of science can be successfully applied to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the pandemic using limited data and can be useful for a quick and preliminary assessment of the spread of infections. In this paper, research on the spatial differentiation of the structure and homogeneity of the system in which SARS-CoV-2 occurs, as well as spatial concentration of people infected was undertaken. The phenomena were investigated in a period of two infection waves in Germany: in spring and autumn 2020. We applied the potential model, entropy, centrographic method, and Lorenz curve in spatial analysis. The potentials model made it possible to distinguish core regions with a high level of the growth of new infections, along with areas of their impact, and regions with a low level of generation of new infections. The entropy showed the spatial distribution of differentiation of the studied system and the change of these characteristics between spring and autumn. The concentration method allowed for spatial and numerical demonstration of the concentration of infected population in a given area. We wanted to show that it is possible to draw meaningful conclusions about the pandemic characteristics using only basic data about infections, along with proper cartographic methods. The results can be used to designate the zones of the greatest threats, and thus, the areas where the most intense actions should be taken.

Highlights

The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in 2020 has created many challenges for health systems around the world, and for scientists from various disciplines.Since the World Health Organization (WHO) [1] declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020, numerous publications have been published about the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID19 disease that it causes
The authors identified strong positive correlation between locations of core airports in the United States and COVID-19 clustering regions, whereas in China, rail transport is cited as one of the main factors contributing to the transmission of the virus [3]
Correlation between distribution of the COVID-19 and population emigration from Wuhan was identified by Chen et al [8]

Summary

Introduction

The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in 2020 has created many challenges for health systems around the world, and for scientists from various disciplines.Since the World Health Organization (WHO) [1] declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020, numerous publications have been published about the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID19 disease that it causes. Studies show the impact of lockdowns on SARS-CoV-2 spread [9], its mortality, and reveal the relationship between air pollution, public transport networks, and the development of SARS-CoV2 [10,11], and the impact of administrative restrictions on the SARS-CoV-2 spread was presented by Warren et al [6]. These studies cover most continents: Africa [12,13], Asia [14], Europe [15], North America and South America [16,17], and Australia [18].

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion