Abstract
Modeling of the modern climatic range of a dangerous plant pest of the genus Buxus L. box tree moth Cydalima perspectalis (Walker, 1859) is carried out in order to determine possible territories of its further expansion in Eurasia. Information on the loci of actual C. perspectalis detection both in native (East and South Asia) and invasive (Europe and West Asia) parts of the range was collected from various sources (species distribution databases and publications). Six bioclimatic (three temperature and three humidity) parameters are used as distribution predictors. Original methods for determining the number of pseudo-absence points and their selective generation are developed and applied. The final classification and partitioning of the space of bioclimatic factors is carried out using gradient boosting. The modern Eurasian climatic range of the box tree moth is calculated and mapped. It is shown that the invasion has not yet reached its limits and there are a number of territories in Eurasia where climatic conditions are favorable for the emergence of C. perspectalis populations both in the native part of the range (certain southern and eastern regions of China, the DPRK, the southern foothills of the Himalayas) and in its invasive part (Northern and Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Turkey). A comparative assessment of the importance of different climatic factors in determining the box tree moth distribution area is given. It has been found out that the sum of the driest month precipitation is of greatest importance for constructing a model of the C. perspectalis climatic range (47.6%). A significant difference in climatic conditions between the native and invasive parts of the range is revealed and assumptions about the possible causes of its occurrence are made.
Published Version
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