Modeling of the dynamics subsea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf under the past and the future climate changes

Abstract

The recent and the future warming in the Arctic may have a potential to cause rapid changes in the Earth’s system. The global warming could lead to destabilization of the subsea permafrost and cause a release of methane into the water column. The state of permafrost in the Arctic is the key to understanding whether the methane, stored in the permafrostrelated gas hydrate, can escape to the atmosphere. Results of the mathematical modeling of the dynamics of submarine permafrost and methane hydrate stability zone in the sediments of the East Siberian Arctic shelf are reported. The thickness of permafrost on the shelf is 170 - 320 m for the geothermal heat flux 60 mW/m² according to the results of experiments. The permafrost modeling indicates that after the seafloor warming from 1948 to 2012 the permafrost deepening down to 1-25 m. A significant degradation of the subsea permafrost down to 10 - 70 m is expected in the next 50 - 100 years.