Abstract
This study aims to calibrate and validate the generic crop model (CROPGRO-Soybean) and estimate the soybean yield, considering simulations with different sowing times for the current period (1990–2013) and future climate scenario (2014–2030). The database used came from observed data, nine climate models of CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment)-Africa framework and MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis. The calibration and validation data for the model were acquired in field experiments, carried out in the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 growing seasons in the experimental area of the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) in Angónia, Mozambique. The yield of two soybean cultivars: Tgx 1740-2F and Tgx 1908-8F was evaluated in the experiments and modeled for two distinct CO2 concentrations. Our model simulation results indicate that the fertilization effect leads to yield gains for both cultivars, ranging from 11.4% (Tgx 1908-8F) to 15% (Tgx 1740-2Fm) when compared to the performance of those cultivars under current CO2 atmospheric concentration. Moreover, our results show that MERRA, the RegCM4 (Regional Climatic Model version 4) and CNRM-CM5 (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques – Climatic Model version 5) models provided more accurate estimates of yield, while others models underestimate yield as compared to observations, a fact that was demonstrated to be related to the model’s capability of reproducing the precipitation and the surface radiation amount.
Highlights
Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) is one of the most cultivated crops in the world due to its demand in several industrial products
The database used for the calibration of genetic coefficients of the CROPGRO-Soybean model was obtained from experimental trials carried out in Angónia, Mozambique in the 2009/2010 and
Our results show that the RegCM4 and CNRM-CM5 models provided more accurate estimates of yield, while other models underestimate yield when compared to observations (Table 7)
Summary
Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) is one of the most cultivated crops in the world due to its demand in several industrial products (from oil production to paper). Due to their economic value, soybeans have been growing under different environmental conditions, which has led to constant technological developments [1]. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated that the world production of soybeans in the 2015/16 growing seasons will be 317.6 million tons, which will be nearly identical to the 2014/15 season production (318.3 million tons). 2015–2016 growing seasons [2] These high soybean yields observed in the American continent are not seen in Africa, Europe and. In Africa, the largest areas planted with soybeans are located in Nigeria (601,000 ha), South Africa
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