Abstract
Results of the analysis and researches of not stationarity of technological processes and processing equipment are given in article and need of their account at design and safe operation of the hazardous production facilities (HPF) of an oil and gas complex is shown. Research and the analysis of results of inspection of conditions of emergence and development of emergencies are carried out taking into account the analysis of not stationarity of conditions of emergence and development of emergencies in the main technological modules of the ELOU-AVT installation. According to inspection the formalized models of trees of refusals and trees of events taking into account not stationarity of risks for head OPO were constructed. The analysis of development of scenarios of accidents by means of the formalized models of trees of refusals and trees of events is a component of system of the analysis and management of minimization of the risk allowing to consider influence of the striking factors, to estimate zones of defeat and to develop organizational and technical actions for early prevention of emergencies at a design stage and operation. Algorithmic providing an assessment of a relative indicator of danger of the processing equipment allowing to estimate total potential fire danger, potential of explosion and reliability of the equipment taking into account not stationarity of operation of OPO is developed. The assessment of degree of danger of OPO taking into account their not stationarity allows to develop the control system of minimization of technical risk providing safe operation of processing equipment on this basis.
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