Modeling of rare rain floods on the example of middle rivers of Angara basin

Abstract

The paper presents the results of creating mathematical models for predicting the maximum water discharge of rare rain floods and an algorithm for the probabilistic assessment of such hydrological phenomena. The developed models are implemented to describe the catastrophic flood observed on the river Iya at Tulun. The prognostic and actual values of the maximum water levels are compared, and the likelihood of a rare hydrological event with a dispersion interval for given significance levels is obtained. The results are important for warning the public about the dangers and designing protective structures.