Modeling of Pathogen Indicator Organisms in a Small-Scale Agricultural Catchment Using SWAT

Abstract

ABSTRACT Degradation of water quality from microbial contaminants associated with agricultural activities has significant implications for source protection of potable water. Novel environmental approaches must be adopted to assess risks from waterborne pathogenic microbes. The objective of this study was to evaluate applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict daily concentrations of E. coli in a small-scale agricultural catchment in Ireland. The study area is based on the Kilshanvey catchment located in the west of Ireland. E. coli data (n = 25) from June 2006 to June 2007 were utilized for comparison with the model's predictions. Statistical analysis indicates an unsatisfactory to fair level of correlation for the model's predictions (R2 = 0.03–0.35, NSE = –0.42–0.29). A sensitivity analysis identified direct stream deposition and die-off rates for E. coli as having a significant impact on the model's predictions. Our results suggest that the model is adequate to assess the magnitude of various microbial sources within catchments but capability to replicate daily observations is uncertain. However, model outputs could provide adequate data to develop a human exposure assessment to pathogen indicator organisms in surface water and assist policy-makers in developing appropriate risk management strategies.