Modeling of land use change under the recent climate projections of CMIP6: a case study of Indian river basin.

Abstract

The aim of the study was to investigate the land use change dynamics under CMIP6 projections using Land Change Modeler(LCM). The Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques was applied to quantify the sensitivity of single parameter and combinationof parameters. Land use and land cover (LULC) transitions of the baseline period (2006-2016) was assessed with a model performance accuracy of 80%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis shows that the model has performed well for all the LULC classes except builtup land. Prediction under the SSP245 scenario depicts that areal extent of agricultural, forest, and snow, and glacier will decrease by the mid-century (2045). However, the grassland and barren land areawill increase from the baseline period. A similar change pattern with a higher magnitude has also been predicted under SSP585 scenario. The CMIP6 forcing index considers socio-economic effects and LCMpredicted an expansion in barren land which may be attributed to changes in cryosphere in the studied area.