MODELING OF INCOME OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ON THE BASIS OF THE PRODUCTION FUNCTION

Abstract

Topic . The article examines the problems associated with forecasting of the development prospects of the economy. Purpose . The creation of a model used to predict the replenishment of budgets of all levels. Analysis of the state of the Russian economy in general and its 85 re gions. Methodology . The research was conducted on the basis of economic and statistical techniques, system analysis, and scientific methods of comparison and mapping. The work applied the proposed the authors the term “macroeconomic production function” — an analog of the production function, which expresses the dependence of production results of the enterprise and factors of production. We used data on tax revenues for all kinds of taxes, employment and gross regional product contained in consolidated informationanalytical system of regional tax revenues “Taxes of Russia”. Data analysis and estimation of parameters was performed using the programs of statistical data processing — IBM SPSS Statistics 20. In the multiple regression procedure of SPSS it was used methods of inclusion, allowing step-by-step selection in a regression equation only the significant independent variables. Results . Based on the proposed model, we conducted the comparison of actual and estimated values of tax revenues for all the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2011 and 2014. We obtained the values of point estimates of the model parameters of macroeconomic production functions. Further, we provided simulation of the values of tax revenues for all the subjects of the Russian Federation for 2014 year. Next, we compared the actual and calculated (from the model) values of tax revenues. Finally, we present the results of comparing the actual and estimated (from the model) values of tax revenues for all the subjects of the Russian Federation for 2014 year. Conclusions . The dependence of tax revenues from the factor of labor productivity is constant for every year. With the growth of capital, the amount of tax incomes of subjects of the Russian Federation was threefold higher than increase in productivity of labor. It can be used for planning of economic development of regions.