Modeling of Extreme Events and Regional Climate Variability on the Territory of the Caucasus (Georgia)

Abstract

Currently, the problem of climate change is an urgent issue in the South Caucasus region, as well as in Georgia, where increased trends of average annual temperature with heavy precipitation, hail, floods and drought have become more frequent. To prevent the consequences of these events (accidents) in a timely manner, it is necessary to take more effective steps in providing scientific information on extreme events a regional and local scale, the official environmental authorities, society and the scientific community. In this work, on the one hand, a comparative study of three cumulus parameterization and five microphysical schemes of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v.3.6 model, is carried out for four exceptional precipitation phenomena that have occurred in Georgia (Tbilisi) in the summer of 2015 and 2016. On the other hand, the Real-time Environmental Applications and Display System (READY) is used to study these phenomena. Predicted events are evaluated by a thorough examination of weather radar data. Some results of numerical calculations based on the WRF and READY systems are presented and analyzed.