Modeling of decadal variations in the Black-Sea ecosystem

Abstract

We consider the decadal evolution of the Black-Sea ecosystem on the basis of a three-dimensional coupled model consisting of the Black-Sea circulation model and a biogeochemical block. The circulation model is based on the widely used POM (Princeton Ocean Model) model. The calculated hydrophysical fields are interpolated then to levels of the biogeochemical model, which covers the upper 150-m layer. We demonstrate the close relationship between the interannual variation of hydrophysical fields and the evolution of the main elements of the ecosystem. The period under consideration (1992–2001) is characterized by the warming of the Black-Sea upper layer, which can be traced by the trend of a growing surface temperature. It follows from the results of modeling that the process of warming is also revealed in the subsurface hydrophysical characteristics and the dynamics of the main elements of the Black-Sea ecosystem.