Modeling of debris avalanche and generated water waves: Application to real and potential events in Montserrat

Abstract

Tsunamis generated by a sudden entry of debris avalanches into the sea have caused some of the worst natural disasters in historic times. The evolution of the Soufrière Hill volcano's activity in Montserrat, Lesser Antilles, could lead to a dome collapse generating a tsunami. Two scenarios have been simulated here. In the first case, the potential entry into the sea of a debris mass of 40 millions of m3 at the mouth of the Tar River Valley, towards the East has been considered. In this case, the debris avalanche is approximated as a fluid entering the sea with a given front height and a given velocity. Sensitivity tests have shown that the simulated water wave is very sensitive to the imposed initial conditions. In order to have a more accurate source term in the tsunami model, we have developed here a numerical debris avalanche model. This model takes into account a Coulomb-type friction law and solves the vertically integrated long wave equations. A first application of this model has been made to simulate the 26th December 1997 debris avalanche with an estimated volume of 60 millions of m3 that occurred in the White River valley, South of Montserrat. Preliminary results show that the debris avalanche path is very sensitive to the considered value of the friction angle 5. An empirical value of 5 lower than 15∘ i. e. less than the value expected for debris avalanches, is required to reproduce the great mobility of this avalanche.