Abstract
The objective of this study is to compare the various nonlinear and time series models in describing the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China. To this aim, we focus on 2 indicators: the number of total cases diagnosed with the disease, and the death toll. The data used for this study are based on the reports of China between January 22 and June 18, 2020. We used nonlinear growth curves and some time series models for prediction of the number of total cases and total deaths. The determination coefficient (R2), mean square error (MSE), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to select the best model. Our results show that while the Sloboda and ARIMA (0,2,1) models are the most convenient models that elucidate the cumulative number of cases; the Lundqvist-Korf model and Holt linear trend exponential smoothing model are the most suitable models for analyzing the cumulative number of deaths. Our time series models forecast that on 19 July, the number of total cases and total deaths will be 85,589 and 4639, respectively. The results of this study will be of great importance when it comes to modeling outbreak indicators for other countries. This information will enable governments to implement suitable measures for subsequent similar situations.
Highlights
Results of Time Series Models for the Number of Total Cases Box-Jenkins and exponential smoothing methods were chosen from the various time series models available for the total number of cases
The goodness of fit of the various models are given in Table 10, and it was observed that the predictions are as successful as nonlinear models
In this study, we found that the Sloboda model for the number of total cases and the Lundqvist-Korf model for the number of total deaths were the best explanatory models among the nonlinear models used in the study
Summary
The objective of this study is to compare the various nonlinear and time series models in describing the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China. We focus on 2 indicators: the number of total cases diagnosed with the disease, and the death toll
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