Modeling of congestion propagation of rail transit passenger flow under delay conditions

Abstract

In order to reduce the impact of train operation delay on passenger flow and operation of rail transit stations under emergency conditions, qualitative and quantitative methods are adopted to analyze the time-space effect of delay trains on rail transit lines and the crowding propagation process of the passenger flow, which provides a basis for train operation adjustment. Based on the timetable of trains and automatic fare collection swiping data of passengers when entering and leaving the station, the relationship between passengers and trains in time and space is analyzed and the time-space propagation model of delayed trains is established. This model comprehensively considers the relationship among the arriving passenger flow, the number of boarding and alighting passengers, the retention number of passengers and the passenger volume to reflect the impact of delayed trains on passengers' travel at each station. Besides, the train adjustment strategies are proposed. Case analysis shows that delay propagation has continuity in time and space. As the train operates on the line, the delays are propagated to follow-up stations, and the average delay time of trains can be effectively saved by shortening the departure interval and detaining trains.