Modeling of carbon sequestration with land use and land cover in the northeastern part of the Nile Delta, Egypt

Abstract

The world is currently concerned about the phenomenon of climate change and global warming because of the natural disasters that threaten the lives of living organisms on the surface of the earth. Despite this, there is a dearth of studies dealing with reducing carbon emissions in Egypt. We needed to cover this defect in an important area of Egypt, which is the eastern delta region including Manzala Lake. Land use and land cover (LU/LC) represents a vital role in carbon regulation in coastal areas. Our study uses three Landsat images in 2001, 2013, and 2021 to estimate the amount of carbon storage and sequestration and used Land Change Modeler (LCM) with Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model to predict land cover changes in 2031. Results show that in the period between 2013 and 2021, about half of the floating plants have been destroyed and removed. Our results demonstrate that the increased area for agricultural lands from 2013 to 2021 (2306 Mg C/km2) leads to an increased amount of carbon stoke but the decreased area for floating plants (-4508 Mg C/km2) leads to a decrease in carbon storage. Results showed that a remarkable decrease in carbon storage in the future was attributed to anthropogenic activities in the study area and also as a result of the un exploiting of environmental resources. Finally, the total cost of carbon was 1323.4, 1437.9, 1184.8, and 1296.5 $US/ha for 2001, 2013, 2021, and 2032, respectively. Results showed that the minimum cost for 2021 that a noticeable shortage due to the removal of vegetation and an increase the area of lake water. These conversions have to some extent affected the capacity of coastal habitats to sequester and store CO2. For carbon storage, we recommend afforestation of desert areas. The current design for carbon storage and sequestration is a good guide for government and decision makers for suitable sustainable development, climatic regulation, and carbon budget.