Abstract
In the Peruvian Andes, water infiltration from tropical wetlands, called páramo, generates headwaters for downstream rivers. The hydrological processes of these wetlands are not well understood within the larger hydrological system, impeding efforts to mitigate the rapid environmental changes anticipated due to regional population growth and climate change. This study constructed and calibrated a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for ecosystems with sparse data in the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed in the Piura region of Peru. The model simulates the impacts of possible changes within the hydrological system to assist decision-makers in strategizing about sustainable development for the region, especially the páramo. Using scenarios designed with stakeholder participation, the WEAP model for the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed examines river headflow production, reservoir water levels, and demand coverage for downstream users when the upstream páramo and its environs are subjected to changes of temperature, precipitation, and land use. The model reveals that while temperature and precipitation changes can be expected to impact páramo water production, the anticipated land use changes will be a primary driver of hydrological responses in the páramo and subsequent changes downstream.
Highlights
Andean landscapes have sustained human habitation and alteration for five to 10 millennia as people used the land for farming or grazing [1]
Calibration results of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for Toma Samba and Chipillico’s gauges (Figure 2B,C) show very good model performance (i.e., 0.75 < NSE < 1) and a low performance for the páramo’s catchment (NSE = 0.25) in the daily model (Figure 2A), which is incorporated in the monthly model
Derived from the provision of key ecosystem services, páramo ecosystems have socioeconomic importance, which may increase with climate change
Summary
Andean landscapes have sustained human habitation and alteration for five to 10 millennia as people used the land for farming or grazing [1]. The páramo is among the least studied and described ecosystems of the world [5] and is in a region currently witnessing the retreat of glacial icecaps [6,7], the disappearance of high altitude water bodies, and the occurrence and rapid spread of natural and man-induced forest fires [8]. The implications of these rapid changes will register on both local and regional scales. Land use and climate changes are already underway; the páramo ecosystem’s response and its potential impact on numerous dependent downstream communities has yet to be reliably predicted
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