Modeling Mosquitoes and their Potential Odonate Predators Under Different Land Uses.

Abstract

To efficiently face the accelerated landscape transformation and its consequences in restructuring biotic communities and ecosystem services, one first question is which regional systems deserve prioritization for empirical assessments and interventive strategies. For the particular case of vector-borne disease control, we should consider generalist predators exhibiting differential responses to land-use change, as is the case of odonate insects. Thus, our aim was to infer land uses in Mexico where odonates (i.e., damselflies and dragonflies) might have some potential to predate mosquitoes of medical relevance. The study area included the hydrological basins of central Mexico. We modelled 167 species of odonates, four species of mosquitoes, and 51 land-use categories. Inferring spatial co-occurrence patterns from data mining and complex networks, we identified: (1) the ecological network of odonates and mosquitoes and (2) the land uses shared by these two groups. We inferred that 34% of odonate species co-occur with mosquitoes of medical relevance mainly in some preserved-mountain mesophyll cloud forest, high evergreen rainforest, and low tropical dry forest-but also in highly modified-human settlements, irrigation-based and pastures crop fields-land uses with strong human presence. Our findings highlight the relevance of community-regional studies for understanding the public health consequences of landscape change.