Modeling mortality in mixed-species stands of coastal British Columbia

Abstract

Individual-tree distance-independent models were developed to estimate regular mortality for western hemlock ( Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii), and western redcedar ( Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don) in the coastal temperate rain forests of British Columbia, Canada. Permanent plots remeasured at intervals ranging from 1 to 17 years were used. Because of the irregular remeasurement intervals, survival was estimated using a generalized logistic model and mortality was calculated by subtraction. Basal area of trees larger than the subject tree provided reasonably accurate mortality estimates for larger trees. However, poor results were obtained for trees less than 7.5 cm in diameter at breast height, which had higher mortality rates than the larger trees. Since the implementation of a survival (or mortality) model within a growth and yield model environment can largely affect estimation accuracy, three methods of implementing the model were also evaluated. A probability multiplier approach where the stems per hectare surviving to the next period is estimated by multiplying the probability of survival by the stems per hectare at the beginning of the time period is recommended. This is equivalent to a stochastic approach averaged over many repetitions but with much less processing time.