Abstract
The effective and efficient planning of rural land-use changes and their impact on the environment is critical for land-use managers. Many land-use growth models have been proposed for forecasting growth patterns in the last few years. In this work; a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use model (Metronamica) was tested to simulate (1999–2007) and predict (2007–2035) land-use dynamics and land-use changes in Andalucía (Spain). The model was calibrated using temporal changes in land-use covers and was evaluated by the Kappa index. GIS-based maps were generated to study major rural land-use changes (agriculture and forests). The change matrix for 1999–2007 showed an overall area change of 674971 ha. The dominant land uses in 2007 were shrubs (30.7%), woody crops on dry land (17.3%), and herbaceous crops on dry land (12.7%). The comparison between the reference and the simulated land-use maps of 2007 showed a Kappa index of 0.91. The land-cover map for the projected PRELUDE scenarios provided the land-cover characteristics of 2035 in Andalusia; developed within the Metronamica model scenarios (Great Escape; Evolved Society; Clustered Network; Lettuce Surprise U; and Big Crisis). The greatest differences were found between Great Escape and Clustered Network and Lettuce Surprise U. The observed trend (1999–2007–2035) showed the greatest similarity with the Big Crisis scenario. Land-use projections facilitate the understanding of the future dynamics of land-use change in rural areas; and hence the development of more appropriate plans and policies
Highlights
Continuous land-use changes, both urban and rural, are caused mainly by anthropogenic activities [1]
The largest change in land cover was for non-irrigated tree crops, which decreased by 3.8%
This study shows the usefulness of Metronamica land-use model to assess future trends of land-use changes in Andalusia
Summary
Continuous land-use changes, both urban and rural, are caused mainly by anthropogenic activities [1]. The use of tools, such as models of land-use change, supports the analysis of the causes and consequences of such changes in order to understand the functioning of the land-use system and to support land-use planning and policy [2]. Changes in demographic development, urbanization, and industrialization have constantly induced land use and land cover (LULC) changes in many regions around the world, producing new biophysical and socio-economic conditions [3]. More research is needed to explain land-use changes at different spatial and temporal scales [13]
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