Modeling Long-Period Swell in Southern California: Practical Boundary Conditions from Buoy Observations and Global Wave Model Predictions

Abstract

AbstractAccurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion; coastal flooding; and alongshore transport of sediment, biota, and pollutants. On sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by directional uncertainty offshore. Here, regional wave model skill in highly sheltered Southern California is compared for different offshore boundary conditions created from offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts [NOAA WaveWatch III (WW3)]. Spectral ray-tracing methods are used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04–0.09 Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1°). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, directional spread, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Buoy-derived boundary conditions using various estimators (maximum entropy, maximum smoothness) have similar skill and all outperform WW3-derived boundary conditions. A new method for estimating offshore boundary conditions, CMB-ADJ, combines buoy observations with WW3 predictions. Although CMB-ADJ skill is comparable to buoy-only methods, it may be more robust in varying regions and wave climatologies, and will benefit from future improvements in global wave model (GWM) predictions. A case study at Oceanside Harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport estimates to the boundary condition method. However, patterns in alongshore gradients of transport (e.g., the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are similar across methods. Weak, tidally modulated coastal reflection is evident in both shallow and deep buoy observations, and significantly increases the observed directional spread.