Abstract
The most recent assessments conducted by the International Energy Agency indicate that natural gas accounts for the majority of Nigeria’s fossil fuel-derived electricity generation, with crude oil serving mostly as a backup source. Fossil fuel-generated electricity represents 80% of the country’s total. In addition, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Nigeria in 2018 (101.3014 Mtons) demonstrated a 3.83% increase from 2017. The purpose of this study is to suggest an alternate energy supply mix to meet future electrical demand and reduce CO2 emissions in Nigeria. The Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) was used in this study to model two case situations of the energy supply systems in Nigeria to determine the best energy supply technology to meet future demand. The Simplified Approach to Estimating Electricity Generation’s External Costs and Impacts (SIMPACTS) code is also used to estimate the environmental impacts and resulting damage costs during normal operation of various electricity generation technologies. Results of the first scenario show that gas and oil power plants are the optimal choice for Nigeria to meet future energy needs with no bound on CO2 emission. If Nigeria adopts CO2 emission restrictions to comply with the Paris Agreement’s target of decreasing worldwide mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C, the best option is nuclear power plants (NPPs). The MESSAGE results demonstrate that both fossil fuels and NPPs are the optimal electricity-generating technologies to meet Nigeria’s future energy demand. The SIMPACTS code results demonstrate that NPPs have the lowest damage costs because of their low environmental impact during normal operation. Therefore, NPP technology is the most environmentally friendly technology and the best choice for the optimization of future electrical technology to meet the demand. The result from this study will serve as a reference source in modeling long-term energy mix therefore reducing CO2 emission in Nigeria.
Highlights
Known as the “Giant of Africa”, Nigeria is located on Africa’s west coast, with total size of 923,766 km2 comprising of 910,768 km2 land mass and 13,000 km2 water bodies [1]
We evaluate the best choice of technology that can be used to generate electricity based on two criteria, cost and environmental impact
The first section discusses the optimization of the energy mix to meet the future electricity demand without constraints on CO2 emissions and the environmental impacts of fossil power plants and hydropower plants
Summary
Known as the “Giant of Africa”, Nigeria is located on Africa’s west coast, with total size of 923,766 km comprising of 910,768 km land mass and 13,000 km water bodies [1]. A study of Mongolia’s long-term energy plan with NPPs using the MESSAGE code aimed to create the first model of Mongolia’s energy modeling to predict the feasibility of introducing nuclear power in its energy circle and to fulfill total electricity demand by 2040. Constraints on CO2 emissions for oil and gas power plants will be applied and the best choice of technology that can generate electricity with minimal external cost and less environmental impacts will be determined. Various research has been conducted using different energy modeling tools with the aim of modeling long-term electricity generation technologies to meet the future electricity demand of Nigeria; no studies conducted in assessing the environmental impacts and damage cost associated with such technologies reducing carbon dioxide emission emanating from existing technology.
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